Due to coronavirus, 2021 was an extremely crucial year for the economy. The market had already adapted to operating during the pandemic. As a result, some countries were not hit as hard as one might have expected. The Dominican Republic is among such countries, having decided to keep its borders open to tourists. What benefits did this bring? It dominated the vacation market and, for example, Poland consequently recorded a record number of tourists traveling to the Dominican Republic (exactly 60,620). Moreover, economically it performed remarkably well.
In early February, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic released a preliminary economic report for 2021. It shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period January-December 2021 achieved a significant growth of 12.3%. This is particularly noticeable in the increase in investment spending by the Dominican government. This is also confirmed by IMAE – Indicador Mensual de Actividad Económica (Monthly Economic Activity Indicator). According to statistics, in December 2021, growth of 10.6% was recorded compared to the same month of the previous year. It is also worth highlighting the GDP forecasts from the IMF – International Monetary Fund. They place the Dominican Republic in first place among Latin American countries with a GDP growth result of 4.7% in 2021 compared to 2019. This represents a real economic recovery, not just a statistical rebound recorded by many Central American countries whose level of economic activity did not exceed pre-pandemic levels.
Source: International Monetary Fund
This situation was influenced by, among other things, government policy of financial assistance for small and medium-sized enterprises. Over 92,000 entities benefited from it. Since the beginning of the pandemic, more than $3.5 billion has been allocated to businesses. The process of consolidating public finances, improving tax collection, and rationalizing public spending naturally allowed public debt to be maintained at the same level as the previous year. As of December 31, the Dominican peso (DOP) strengthened by 1.4%, gaining value according to the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic. The dollar price fell from 57.83 to 54.99 DOP. In contrast to others, the Dominican Republic performed best, as in other Central American countries currency depreciation occurred.
The sectors that recorded the highest growth compared to the previous year were, of course, tourism (39.5%). This was followed by construction (23.4%), production in free trade zones (20.3%), and transport and trade (12.9%).
Source: Central Bank of the Dominican Republic
Such significant growth in the construction sector at the end of 2021 was directly linked to private real estate investments. This undoubtedly aims to increase tourism capacity. The final months of 2021 showed a record influx of tourists, never before recorded. A derivative of the growing interest in products from the Dominican Republic is the growth in the free trade zone sector.
In 2021, products totaling over $7 billion USD were exported (I describe this in more detail here: https://tiny.pl/9kdcs). This had a positive impact on the economic recovery of the Dominican Republic. All of this had a positive effect on the expansion of the trade and transport market. At the same time, the manufacturing industry and agricultural sector experienced somewhat less growth, which slowed the rapid increase in food prices in the country.
Inflation at the end of the year was 8.5%, which is a result very similar to the rest of the world. The price increase was significantly influenced by external factors such as higher commodity fees, particularly oil prices. The jump in container transport costs, geopolitical tensions, and consequently supply chain disruptions contributed to the increase in food prices. On the other hand, imports of products other than oil increased by 43.4%, indicating a return to purchasing production inputs and renewed interest in consumer goods.
According to preliminary analyses by the National Continuous Labour Force Survey, unemployment in the labor market decreased in the last quarter of 2021. The pandemic left its mark on the tourism sector, which accounts for nearly 20% of GDP. This is where the most people lost their jobs. The economic recovery in 2021 allowed for the recovery of over 90% of lost jobs. Ultimately, unemployment in December 2021 was 7.1%, giving a total of over 4.7 million employed people.
Source: Central Bank of the Dominican Republic
Among investors, there is great confidence in this country’s economy. According to data, foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2021 amounted to $3.085 billion USD, showing a 20% increase compared to 2020. The most FDI was recorded in the tourism, real estate, and mining sectors. Thanks to the excellent results of individual sectors generating foreign exchange in 2021, the total FDI amounted to $34.039 billion USD (including: tourism $5.680 billion USD, free zone trade $7.1 billion USD, private external investments $3.1 billion USD, remittances $10.4 billion USD). This is approximately $8 billion more than 2020 and $3 billion more than in 2019.
It should be noted that despite the difficult international situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Dominican economy demonstrated remarkable resilience. GDP growth forecast for 2022 is between 5.5-6.0%. The Ministry of Tourism forecasts that up to 8 million tourists may visit the Dominican Republic. It must be emphasized that investors and international organizations continue to assess the Dominican Republic as a country with enormous prospects, highlighting political and economic stability. Banks such as Bank of America, JP Morgan, PIMCO, Oppenheimer have distinguished the Dominican economy, indicating it as a country that handled the pandemic excellently and as very good for investment.
Jędrzej Pacak
Source: Informe Preliminar de la Economía Dominicana Enero-Diciembre 2021
